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Market affinity: the cities your niche is heard in, and which ones are open to you

Market affinity in Opah sets each city’s share of each artist’s Spotify listeners against the whole roster you track, with the 28-day change and which peers are active there, so every city in the niche’s top fives reads as an opening, contested or emerging. A city your peers share and you lack is the first market to test.

$0.99 a month for your first 3 months on Opah Core, then $19. Cancel any time. Chartmetric is $60 a month for 10 artists; Opah is $19 for 3 or $39 for 10.

Market openings for one artist
3cities
Peers studied
4
Strongest
Melbourne, 4 of 4
  1. Melbourne4 of 4
  2. São Paulo3 of 4
  3. Mexico City2 of 4
Cities where the four artists one independent studies have measurable Spotify listeners and that artist has none, anonymised. In the product the same read runs across every city in the niche’s top fives.

Measured , artists anonymised.

The cities the niche shares, and the one you are missing

For one independent artist, all four of the artists they study have listeners in Melbourne and the artist has none; three of four in São Paulo; two of four in Mexico City. Those are openings, markets with proven demand for the niche and no presence from the artist, and they are the first place a test budget or a first show should go.

The Market Map in the Playbook draws every such city for the niche, and the affinity matrix beside it says, per artist and per city, who over-indexes where, so a city can also be read as one peer’s stronghold rather than the niche’s.

What the Markets read computes

From Spotify’s five cities per artist, every 24 hours, and the artists’ own shows and ads.

Share
Each city's share of each artist's top-five listeners, against the roster's typical share there
Every 24 hours
Affinity
Share over the baseline; printed only past the floors (1,000 listeners, 3 artists in the city)
Computed
Change
Listeners in the city over the last 28 days, against the artist's total
Computed
Peer activity
Shows in the last 90 or next 180 days, and ads naming the city in the last 120
Every 72 hours
Class
Opening (peers heard, you absent), contested (two or more peers active now), emerging (growing and outpacing)
Computed
Board
The target board: each market with its class, its listeners and the peers in it
Daily

How to read it

Read openings first: proven demand with no presence is the cheapest test there is. Read contested markets as the ones to avoid buying ads in this month, since two peers are already paying there. Read emerging markets as the ones to watch, and check whether a peer’s show or ad is what moved them. Put your own artist in the roster and the board is written for you.

How to read these numbers

Blank cells are not guesses
A city needs 3 artists with 1,000 listeners each before affinity prints; below that the cell is blank, not a guess.

The other half: the ads that name the city

A contested market is usually contested with ads. Opah keeps every ad the niche runs, with the cities named in its copy and links, and for ads delivered in the EU or the UK, Meta’s own reach by country, so a market’s paid side is on the same board as its listeners.

Questions

More on the FAQ.

What is market affinity?
For each city, each artist's share of their Spotify listeners there divided by the roster's typical share, so a city where an artist over-indexes reads above 1 and a city where they under-index reads below. The matrix needs 3 artists with 1,000 listeners in a city before it prints a figure. Opah's list price starts at $19 a month for 3 artists.
What is a market opening?
A city where the artists you study have measurable listeners and your artist has none. For one independent: Melbourne (4 of 4 peers), São Paulo (3 of 4 peers), Mexico City (2 of 4 peers). Contested is a city where at least two peers are active there now; emerging is a city whose listeners grew at least 15% in 28 days and outpaced the artist's total.
What counts as a peer being active in a city?
A show there in the last 90 days or the next 180, from the artist's Spotify concert listings, or an ad naming the city in the last 120 days. Opah reads both from the artist's own profile and ads.
Where do the cities come from?
Spotify's five top cities per artist, with listeners in each, read every 24 hours. Five per artist is thin; across a niche the fives become a map. Spotify gives no country figure, so Opah never adds cities into one.
Is this the same as Chartmetric's affinity?
The idea of over- and under-indexing against a baseline is the same. Opah's baseline is the roster you name, computed from Spotify's own city figures, with the floors printed, so it works for every artist from the first read and needs no external dataset.

The open markets, named from the first read

The first numbers arrive the same day.

$0.99 a month for your first 3 months on Opah Core, then $19. Cancel any time. Chartmetric is $60 a month for 10 artists; Opah is $19 for 3 or $39 for 10.